A theory has been gaining steam over the last few decades that explains why the skill of confidence is the only skill required at the top of many American businesses.
If you’re like me, you’ve been scratching your head wondering how the United States Executive Branch came to be led by a convicted felon, daytime talk show hosts and a real-life supervillain, yet somehow things feel oddly familiar about the situation. For all of us who work or have worked for a confident-yet-incompetent boss or manager, especially one with a lack of moral compass, this situation feels less perplexing than it should.
Perhaps we aren’t as alarmed as we should be because we’ve all worked for someone with a combination of high self-esteem and a low amount of know-how. It’s such a familiar story. These people interview well. They are photogenic. They spend a lot of time on their appearance. They preach about how anyone that works hard will succeed. There’s a mental bias known as the Dunning-Kruger effect that explains the proliferation of this burdensome figure in American business and politics.
What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that plays out in workplaces across America every single day, often in ways that employees find frustrating, demotivating, or even comical. It describes the phenomenon where individuals with limited competence in a particular skill overestimate their abilities, often blissfully unaware of their shortcomings. In contrast, highly skilled individuals sometimes underestimate their expertise, assuming that if something is easy for them, it must be easy for everyone else. This psychological trap is especially common among leaders and managers who, despite their confidence, may lack the actual expertise needed to make sound decisions.
Think about how many times you’ve seen a boss step into a meeting and present an idea with unwavering certainty, despite clear evidence that it won’t work. Or a manager who insists they understand the nuances of a field—whether it’s marketing, technology, or employee engagement—when their ideas and execution show otherwise. It’s one of the most painful yet common workplace dynamics: a leader who is out of their depth but convinced they’re the smartest person in the room. Worse still, employees who do have the right expertise may struggle to be heard, simply because their competence makes them more aware of the complexities involved.
This effect can be disastrous in the business world. Overconfident leaders often dismiss valuable input from experienced employees, double down on bad decisions, and create a culture where ego outweighs actual expertise. The best workplaces, on the other hand, recognize that true leadership isn’t about knowing everything—it’s about knowing what you don’t know and surrounding yourself with people who do. Recognizing the Dunning-Kruger effect in action can help both employees and executives become more self-aware, fostering a culture where knowledge and experience are valued over unchecked confidence.
So how do businesses combat this? It starts with humility. The best leaders acknowledge that expertise isn’t static, and they actively seek feedback from those who know more than they do. Encouraging a culture of learning and listening can help organizations avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence while empowering the real experts—the employees on the ground—to help steer the company toward success.
Why Do Leaders Fall Into This Trap?
The Dunning-Kruger effect doesn’t just happen randomly—it takes root in the workplace due to specific psychological blind spots, particularly in leadership roles. One of the most widely discussed explanations for this phenomenon is the “metacognitive” model, which suggests that people who lack a certain skill also lack the ability to recognize their own shortcomings. In other words, part of becoming skilled at something isn’t just doing the task well—it’s also developing an awareness of what “good” and “bad” performances look like. Leaders who suffer from this effect are often convinced they are making strong, informed decisions simply because they don’t have the expertise to recognize the flaws in their own reasoning.
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This concept is sometimes called the “double-burden of incompetence.” Not only do these individuals struggle with a lack of skill, but they are also unable to accurately assess their own abilities. In the workplace, this plays out when managers push forward with bad strategies, reject constructive feedback, or micromanage employees in areas where they have little real expertise. Worse yet, because they don’t recognize their own gaps in knowledge, they may view employees who question them as insubordinate rather than insightful.
Interestingly, researchers have found that training people in critical thinking and logical reasoning can help them make more accurate self-assessments. This suggests that self-awareness and the ability to recognize one’s own limits aren’t fixed traits but skills that can be developed. Unfortunately, many workplace cultures reinforce overconfidence rather than self-awareness, rewarding bold decision-making over thoughtful reflection. When companies fail to foster a culture where leaders are encouraged to acknowledge what they don’t know, the Dunning-Kruger effect can take hold at the highest levels of decision-making, often leading to costly mistakes.
To combat this, organizations need to prioritize leadership development programs that emphasize not just technical skills but also self-awareness, humility, and the ability to seek input from experts. Encouraging a culture of learning and feedback, rather than one that rewards blind confidence, can help mitigate the damage caused by leaders who don’t realize they’re in over their heads. By recognizing the Dunning-Kruger effect in action, employees and executives alike can take steps to ensure that decisions are based on actual expertise rather than misplaced confidence.
Watch Kristi Noem maintain total confidence while exhibiting embarrassing ineptness:
Remind you of any leaders you know personally?
Perpetual Dunning-Kruger Syndrome
I don’t know if Dunning and/or Kruger would agree with this theory, but it seems clear that some people never get a chance to follow the entire continuum of the Dunning Kruger effect because they never hit the Valley of Despair. These people, I theorize, are stuck in a state of Perpetual Dunning-Kruger, spending the majority of their days on Earth on the Peak of Mount Stupid.
How Can Leaders Avoid This Trap?
Leaders who want to avoid falling into the trap of the Dunning-Kruger effect need to prioritize self-awareness, humility, and continuous learning. Here are some practical steps they can take to ensure they don’t overestimate their own abilities:
- Cultivate a Growth Mindset: One of the most effective ways to combat overconfidence is by adopting a growth mindset—the belief that skills and knowledge can be developed over time. Leaders should view challenges as opportunities to learn and grow, rather than relying solely on what they already know. This mindset allows leaders to embrace feedback, admit when they’re wrong, and recognize areas for improvement without feeling threatened.
- Encourage Feedback and Collaboration: Leaders should actively seek feedback from their team and peers, especially in areas where they lack expertise. This can involve creating a safe space for employees to offer constructive criticism or suggestions. Leaders who foster a culture of open communication are more likely to gain insights that help them recognize their limitations and improve their decision-making. Collaborating with others, especially those with more specialized knowledge, helps ensure that important decisions are informed by a broader perspective.
- Develop Metacognitive Awareness: To avoid the blind spots that come with the Dunning-Kruger effect, leaders can work on improving their metacognitive skills—basically, their ability to think about their own thinking. This includes learning how to assess the quality of their own decisions and being open to the idea that they may not always have the best answer. Developing this awareness can make leaders more humble and open to learning, which in turn helps them make better-informed decisions.
- Invest in Ongoing Learning and Development: Leaders should commit to their own continuous education. Whether it’s through formal training, reading, mentorship, or attending industry events, staying informed helps leaders stay grounded in reality. When leaders regularly expand their knowledge and skills, they are less likely to be blindsided by the Dunning-Kruger effect, as they’ll be better equipped to understand the complexities of their role and the industry as a whole.
- Encourage Self-Reflection: Leaders can make self-reflection a part of their regular routine. This involves taking time to evaluate their past decisions, considering what worked, what didn’t, and why. By regularly reflecting on their performance and seeking areas for improvement, leaders can become more aware of their strengths and weaknesses. This self-awareness can serve as an antidote to overconfidence, as leaders become more attuned to where their assumptions may be flawed.
- Surround Yourself with Experts: Finally, leaders should surround themselves with individuals who bring expertise and diverse perspectives to the table. This doesn’t just mean hiring experts, but actively engaging with them and valuing their input. A strong team of knowledgeable, skilled individuals will help counterbalance the tendency to make decisions based solely on personal assumptions or limited knowledge. Leaders who listen to their experts and trust their input are much less likely to fall victim to overestimating their own capabilities.
By incorporating these practices into their leadership approach, leaders can minimize the risk of overconfidence and make more informed, balanced decisions. Ultimately, the key is to stay humble, stay curious, and never stop learning.
If you are wealthy, isolated and surrounded by opportunistic sycophants, when will you ever have the opportunity to cleanse your false assumptions in the pit of the Valley of Despair?
America’s business world and government will continue to be ruled by these inept-yet-confident buffoons until the day we learn as workers and citizens how to recognize the confident liars amongst our ranks.
